A graduate-level illustrated introduction to and tutorial the Delphi method, discussing quantitative applications and explaining fuzzy math approaches to Delphi networks.
Why we think it's important: The Delphi method has been used primarily as a qualitative approach in the social sciences. While the previous edition highlighted many of thw quantitative uses of Delphi, the 2014 edition provides an illustrated tutorial on its applied mathematics, giving students the basis for undertaking their own quantitative Delphi analyses.
New in the 2014 edition:
Now includes an extended illustrated tutorial on how to use fuzzy mathematics to analyze Delphi networks.
Covers measures of central tendency, agreement network analysis, anc mean network potency.
Nearly double the length of the previous edition with expanded discussion throughout.
Table of Contents
Overview5
Key Concepts and Terms6
Appropriateness6
Rounds6
Forecasts vs. reasons6
Legitimation and Selection of Experts6
Anonymity7
Examples of Delphi in quantitative research8
Defining constructs8
Developing and selecting indicators8
Creating a multidimensional instrument9
Creating a typological framework10
Coding10
Establishing the construct validity of factor weightings11
Integrating factor eigenvalues and Delphi weights for purposes of optimal scoring for selection among alternatives11
Adjusting statistical forecasts12
Using fuzzy mathematics in Delphi research13
Overview13
Example14
Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN)16
Distances17
Overview17
The geometric method17
The vertex method18
Analysis20
Overview20
Central tendency20
Agreement network21
Mean network potency25
Project planning networks25
Assumptions27
Representative selection of experts27
Expert knowledge27
Expert Motivation27
Bias toward the mean27
Avoidance of researcher bias28
Intermediate level of predictability28
Frequently Asked Questions28
How many experts should serve on a Delphi panel?28
How are experts selected?29
How many rounds should there be in a Delphi process?29
How long does the Delphi process take?30
What if no consensus is reached?30
What is e-Delphi?31
Is the Delphi administrator always a neutral facilitator?32
Bibliography32
Pagecount 38
Why we think it's important: The Delphi method has been used primarily as a qualitative approach in the social sciences. While the previous edition highlighted many of thw quantitative uses of Delphi, the 2014 edition provides an illustrated tutorial on its applied mathematics, giving students the basis for undertaking their own quantitative Delphi analyses.
New in the 2014 edition:
Now includes an extended illustrated tutorial on how to use fuzzy mathematics to analyze Delphi networks.
Covers measures of central tendency, agreement network analysis, anc mean network potency.
Nearly double the length of the previous edition with expanded discussion throughout.
Table of Contents
Overview5
Key Concepts and Terms6
Appropriateness6
Rounds6
Forecasts vs. reasons6
Legitimation and Selection of Experts6
Anonymity7
Examples of Delphi in quantitative research8
Defining constructs8
Developing and selecting indicators8
Creating a multidimensional instrument9
Creating a typological framework10
Coding10
Establishing the construct validity of factor weightings11
Integrating factor eigenvalues and Delphi weights for purposes of optimal scoring for selection among alternatives11
Adjusting statistical forecasts12
Using fuzzy mathematics in Delphi research13
Overview13
Example14
Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN)16
Distances17
Overview17
The geometric method17
The vertex method18
Analysis20
Overview20
Central tendency20
Agreement network21
Mean network potency25
Project planning networks25
Assumptions27
Representative selection of experts27
Expert knowledge27
Expert Motivation27
Bias toward the mean27
Avoidance of researcher bias28
Intermediate level of predictability28
Frequently Asked Questions28
How many experts should serve on a Delphi panel?28
How are experts selected?29
How many rounds should there be in a Delphi process?29
How long does the Delphi process take?30
What if no consensus is reached?30
What is e-Delphi?31
Is the Delphi administrator always a neutral facilitator?32
Bibliography32
Pagecount 38
