This book explores the principles of probabilistic decision theory and shows how they work in real world situations.
Decision theory is the calculus of uncertain outcomes and preferences and values. The great mathematician and economist Thomas Schelling defines decision theory as the science of choosing in accordance with one's existing preferences, maximizing the satisfaction of one's values. As the science of choosing, decision theory is the natural quantitative foundation of medical care and research and policy making.
Decision theory is not fundamental. Unlike physics decision theory is not a set of basic laws and fundamental truths; it discovers no natural phenomena or concepts hidden from us and waiting to be found. Decision theory is a practical instrument which helps translate one's observations and objectives and values and preferences into one's actions. As a practical instrument decision theory is a set of invented rules and useful mathematical methods and tools. The role of these rules and methods and tools is to link human knowledge and assumptions (models) with captured data (observables) and with human preferences and values (valuables) and translate them into choices and, ultimately, actions. We invent these rules and methods and tools and we keep them only because they make sense and because they work.
This book is a primer of probabilistic decision theory written for medical professionals, scientists and policy makers. It is a collection of mostly independent essays.
Except for a few relatively tough spots which are marked as advanced, mathematics in this book is reasonably accessible.
This is a Kindle textbook replica of the print edition.
Decision theory is the calculus of uncertain outcomes and preferences and values. The great mathematician and economist Thomas Schelling defines decision theory as the science of choosing in accordance with one's existing preferences, maximizing the satisfaction of one's values. As the science of choosing, decision theory is the natural quantitative foundation of medical care and research and policy making.
Decision theory is not fundamental. Unlike physics decision theory is not a set of basic laws and fundamental truths; it discovers no natural phenomena or concepts hidden from us and waiting to be found. Decision theory is a practical instrument which helps translate one's observations and objectives and values and preferences into one's actions. As a practical instrument decision theory is a set of invented rules and useful mathematical methods and tools. The role of these rules and methods and tools is to link human knowledge and assumptions (models) with captured data (observables) and with human preferences and values (valuables) and translate them into choices and, ultimately, actions. We invent these rules and methods and tools and we keep them only because they make sense and because they work.
This book is a primer of probabilistic decision theory written for medical professionals, scientists and policy makers. It is a collection of mostly independent essays.
Except for a few relatively tough spots which are marked as advanced, mathematics in this book is reasonably accessible.
This is a Kindle textbook replica of the print edition.
